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July 11, 2026

Founder manual session — real capital

EVIDENCE HEALTH
Live trades
52
Live trading days
8
Live result
-0.40% net
Sample status
Too small to prove edge
Record basis
Internal broker records reviewed by desk
Independent audit
No
Session summary

Real capital traded and lost 0.40% of the account. 1 of 1 closed live session(s) were the founder's own manual trading, not the bot — discretionary, outside the tested rules. It is published here for the same reason the green days are: a record that only shows the machine's days is not a record.

What happened
  • Founder manual session — not the bot. manual crypto close (PYTH). Result -0.40% of the account, broker-reconciled.
  • WEEKLY REVIEW — return since inception: +1.0% across 49 live trades (30 wins). The number is small and honestly labeled: too early to prove anything.
  • The research fleet sailed 98 paper strategies across 8 asset classes.
  • 6372 boat(s) sank today — breached their pre-set risk lines (calendar, mean-reversion, relative-strength, relative-value, trend-following, unnamed, volatility-regime families). Sunk boats stay sunk.
  • The three-fund control experiment marked to the close: setup-driven and news-driven paper funds versus a pure random baseline.
  • 7 pre-registered exams remain under test with frozen rules — none may change mid-exam.
Closed live summary
Instrument typeU.S. listed options
Strategy familyFounder manual — discretionary
Executed byFounder (manual)
Number of live trades1
Net return-0.40%
Risk multiple— no pre-set risk unit recorded
Rule followedNo — manual session, outside the bot's rules
Internal record matchedYes
Independent auditNo
What we learned
  • Most strategies are supposed to die. Each sinking is cheap, honest evidence — paid in paper, not capital.
  • The current fleet leader is a calendar approach in long-dated options, 7 session(s) at sea. Leadership this early means little — longevity is the score that counts.
  • The news fund is currently ahead of the random baseline. The bar to matter is beating luck — not beating zero.
  • A week is a paragraph, not a verdict. We grade months; we only record weeks.
What changed after
  • No live parameters were changed. Anything that earns promotion must first beat a random baseline, survive costs, and hold up out-of-sample.

Private ledger note. Full trade-execution detail (contracts, strikes, timestamps, prices, order IDs) remains in the private Ledger. The public journal publishes closed summaries for accountability, not signals. Every live figure above is taken from the broker-reconciled ledger, and sessions the founder traded by hand are labelled as manual rather than folded into the system's record.