Research Notes
Longer-form notes from the research process, edited for public accountability and private-edge protection.
Featured note
A +447% that was worth $50
A number that looked like a triumph and meant almost nothing. Here's how a giant percentage on a tiny base fools everyone — including the person who ran it — and why we label every result now.
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#DateCategoryTitleEvidence
#023
Jul 1, 2026
Post-mortem
A +447% that was worth $50
Real-price replay
#022
Jun 30, 2026
Doctrine
How an idea earns its way to real money
Conceptual
#021
Jun 28, 2026
Case study
We mechanized the legends. Most of it was a coin flip.
Real-price replay
#020
Jun 27, 2026
Case study
We backtested the viral bot
Paper
#019
Jun 26, 2026
Doctrine
You don't need a 97% win rate. You need a casino's.
Conceptual
#018
Jun 25, 2026
Market structure
What the founder's eye knew before the backtests did
Conceptual
#017
Jun 24, 2026
Case study
The dividend question, answered with receipts
Real-price replay
#016
Jun 23, 2026
Doctrine
The mountain
Conceptual
#015
Jun 21, 2026
Doctrine
The guide
Conceptual