Ch. 04 — the notes

What the desk learned

Longer-form notes from the research process — essays, post-mortems, doctrine — edited for public accountability and private-edge protection. Every note carries its evidence type; none carries a recipe.

notes 9post-mortems 1doctrine pieces 4recipes published none — lessons only

Featured note

#023 · Jul 1, 2026 · Post-mortem

A +447% that was worth $50

A number that looked like a triumph and meant almost nothing. Here's how a giant percentage on a tiny base fools everyone — including the person who ran it — and why we label every result now.

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Notes index

#DateCategoryTitleEvidence

#023 Jul 1, 2026 Post-mortem A +447% that was worth $50 Real-price replay #022 Jun 30, 2026 Doctrine How an idea earns its way to real money Conceptual #021 Jun 28, 2026 Case study We mechanized the legends. Most of it was a coin flip. Real-price replay #020 Jun 27, 2026 Case study We backtested the viral bot Paper #019 Jun 26, 2026 Doctrine You don't need a 97% win rate. You need a casino's. Conceptual #018 Jun 25, 2026 Market structure What the founder's eye knew before the backtests did Conceptual #017 Jun 24, 2026 Case study The dividend question, answered with receipts Real-price replay #016 Jun 23, 2026 Doctrine The mountain Conceptual #015 Jun 21, 2026 Doctrine The guide Conceptual